Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Why did the markets jump 4%?

Look at the meteoric rise of the stock markets worldwide this week. Just yesterday, Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq all rose more than 4%. KLCI is already up by 27 points this morning, looking set to cross the 1500 line.

S&P 500 Daily Chart as at 30-Nov-2011

Source: Stockcharts.com

DJIA Daily Chart as at 30-Nov-2011

Source: Stockcharts.com

KLCI Daily Chart as at 1-Dec-2011

Source: Tradesignum.com\chart

Looking at these fantastic charts alone, I would have thought that EU leaders have finally found a grand solution to the Euro crisis and the US is out of recession risk. Not even close! What caused the uprise then?

#1 Coordinated action by six central banks to provide cheaper access to U.S. dollar funding
http://www.cnbc.com//id/45492184
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-ecb-boj-boe-snb-bank-of-canada-announce-coordinated-intervention-2011-11

#2 China Cuts Reserve Ratio
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/asian-stocks-advance-after-central-banks-ease-dollar-funding.html

What does the Lending Cost Cut and and Reserve Ratio Cut indicate?
#1 These arrangements should indicate just how frightened governments around the world are about the European financial crisis
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204012004577069960192509068.html?mod=asia_home

#2 China Reserve-Ratio Cut May Signal Slowdown
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/china-cuts-reserve-requirement-for-banks-as-europe-crisis-threatens-growth.html

Does anyone care about the fall of PMI in China?
China Factory Sector Shrinks First Time in Nearly 3 Years
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45501162
China Manufacturing Falls for First Time Since 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/china-s-manufacturing-shrinks-for-first-time-since-2009-on-europe-impact.html

Or the Unsustainable yield that Italy has to pay for its government bond?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND

Or that the Leading Indicators still points to recession risk in the US?
http://www.oecd.org/department/0,3355,en_2649_34349_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

Investors craves so much for a Santa rally that they put on rose tinted glasses while reading the news, picking only the good side of a report and brushing aside the rest.

When the reality that none of the crises have been resolved slaps them in the face, investors will go into another bout of panic selling. It's bound to happen isn't it?


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