EPS & Revenue Growth
From the divergence of the EPS and Revenue chart lines, we can see that the profit margin of Carlsberg is being squeezed prior to 2009.
Both revenue and profit increased tremendously after the acquisition of Carlsberg Singapore in 2009.
Financial year end of Carlsberg Bhd is 31 Dec.
This is how it has performed this year, 2011.
Q1 Q2 Q3
Revenue 407215 345512 4101661
EPS 16.01 10.15 15.98
EPS for 3 cumulative quarters sums up to 42.14, almost reaching the EPS of Year 2010. Achieving 20% growth in 2011 is at hand.
Gross profit margin in 2010 is 34%, compared to GAB 31%.
ROE at 23% is a big improvement over the previous 8 years of under 20% return on equity.
Carlsberg doesn't have to spend big on Capex, 23mill in 2010. Depreciation is a single digit %.
Free Cash Flow yield (FCF) at 8% is outstanding.
Retained earnings is also building up
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
323.3 319.1 316.0 363.5 438.2
Gearing
Carlsberg has no long term debt. It has some short term debts tho.
DE ratio 0.6.
At time of writing, 1-Dec-2011,
PE : 17.13
PEG: 1.47
Compared to GAB (I'm using GAB instead of the industry because there are only 2 players!), having PE 18 and PEG >2, Carlsberg share price bodes better with me.
DCF computes a fair value of 8.18 for Carlsberg.
Without thorough analysis of these 2 breweries, I'd have gone for GAB due to personal preference for its beer. Now, I lean towards Carlsberg if I have to choose just one to buy.
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