KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI P/E as at 27-Dec-2011

At Closing on 27-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1500.91
P/E Ratio  :    16.1198

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI P/E as at 23-Dec-2011

At Closing on 23-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1496.15
P/E Ratio     : 16.0687

FTSE Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) KLCI 10-year P/E Multiple Chart as at 9-Dec-2011

Source: Public Mutual

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI P/E as at 22-Dec-2011

At Closing on 22-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1491.46
P/E Ratio     : 16.0183

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI P/E as at 21-Dec-2011

At Closing on 21-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1484.98
P/E Ratio     : 15.9488

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI P/E as at 20-Dec-2011

At Closing on 20-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1465.17
P/E Ratio     : 15.736

A very blissful time off day

It has been a week since I left the Away Message on my work email outlook. I'm feeling terrific. No signs of lethargy or shoulder pain. I feel at ease, no, better.. I feel alive, very alive.

I'm poking this entry on my mobile blogger while sipping a long black with jazz playing in the background at a quaint coffee shop. I am feeling such pleasure that I just have to stop reading my book and whip out my phone to pen this moment.

This is how I want to live. With a choice. Freedom to execute my day in the way I want it to be. To be untrapped. To really live.

FBM KLCI Market PE as at 19 Dec 2011

At Closing on 19 Dec 2011
KLCI Index : 1477.78
KLCI PE     : 15.9346

KLSE Bursa KLCI PE as at 16 Dec 2011

KLCI at Closing: 1466.22
KLCI PE Ratio: 15.81

FBM KLCI PE Ratio as at 15 Dec 2011

KLCI at closing: 1464.11
KLCI PE Ratio: 15.81

Year end break

I'll be taking a short family vacation from today till next Thursday. KLCI PE Ratio Daily updates will be published as usual if there is Internet connection available.

The story on petronas Dagangan will have to wait while I get some sun, sea and sand.

KLCI PE as at 14 Dec 2011

KLCI at Closing: 1463.12
KLCI PE Ratio: 15.8

KLSE FBM KLCI PE Ratio as at 13-Dec-2011

At Closing on 13-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1465.39
P/E Ratio     : 16.0055

FTSE Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) KLCI 10-year P/E Multiple Chart as at 2-Dec-2011

Source: Public Mutual

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E as at 12-Dec-2011

At Closing on 12-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1467.1
P/E Ratio     : 16.025

Seminar: Creating Multiple Sources Of Income

How To Prepare For The Coming Economic Downturn With Multiple Sources Of Income

I attended the above titled seminar 2 Thursdays ago on 1st December 2011. The seminar starts at 7:45pm and I have been stuck in a horrific traffic jam for the past 1 1/2 hour, despite leaving work on the dot. I have never driven to Armada Hotel before, where the seminar is held, and I am attending it alone. Tough to get someone to accompany me as most just want to get home and get comfy after work. To attend a seminar on making multiple sources of income is too stressful. But I was determined to explore any opportunity that could give me a boost towards financial freedom.

At 7:30pm, I've arrived at the seminar venue. The turn-up was good. Mostly young adults, with a scatter of younger grads and older folks. 

The presentor is KC See, master coach and mentor of the 14 year running Money Mastery Program. I didn't know who he was. But one thing that immediately caught my interest was that he learned his stuff from Robert Kiyosaki, DIRECTLY, the man himself. KC See followed Kiyosaki around for 2 years before setting out on his own. Okay, KC had a great mentor, better perk up and listen to what he has to say. 

If you are interested in attending this seminar, register by Email to receive your free invitation. Send your name, mobile number and no. of seat to dctbff@gmail.com

Here are the topics he covered in the seminar. Some words are his, some are my own thoughts.

1. Revisiting your money concepts and beliefs-foundations of money making habits.

What is wealth?

Common answers include 'When I'm a millionaire', 'When I own big cars and big houses', 'When I earn atleast a 5-figure income monthly salary'

Robert Kiyosaki's defination of wealth:- 'The number of days you can survive forward, maintaining your current lifestyle, if you quit your job tomorrow'

You are truly wealth when your answer is FOREVER. Which means you do not need to work if you so wish and still be able to maintain your lifestyle indefinately because you have multiple sources of income that churns out money for you.

Our beliefs-foundation of money making is deeply inculcated in us since young. If your parents believe that Money is the Root is all Evil, their belief will rub off you. Other believes include, More money = more stress, less time.

2.       Why most people wants Multiple Sources of Income (MSI) and why most FAIL.

Why most people wants Multiple Sources of Income is rather apparent right?

We want more money! Okay there are other reasons too.

Recession risk that looms. Jobs may be cut. If we do not rely on just ONE source of income, our salary, but we have multiple sources of income, then losing just one income stream when we get retrenched will not have much devastating impact.

For me, I want to leave my 9-6 job and still have a substantial income to support my family. To achieve that, I must start building multiple sources of income now. By the time my other sources of income surpass my salary, I can call it quit! 

Now, the reality. Most FAIL. Why?

This is actually covered in the invitation sent out. So I'm just gonna do a cut-n-paste job here.

Fact 1

IN a recent survey of close to 896 people like yourself, we found that 91.36% of people agree that they should have MSI. However only 23.4 % actually get it done. Why? Intentions are always there but nothing really matters until you take action. Many just could not get started. 

Fact 2

A large number of people who embark on their MSI, went into income ideas that either does not suit them or does not produce the results they want. They make wrong choices. They have no guidelines or criteria to help them make the right decisions. They just listen to their friends and join them. But what suits their friends does not necessarily suits them.

Fact 3

Some has great ideas but has no template or the necessary resources or support to help them make it into a real-world income. They end up frustrated and disenchanted.

Fact 4

Some went to into what seems to be MSI and end up losing money and losing time.

3.       4 decisions people make in order to change their financial results.

1^st Decision

Must Create Multiple Source of income

Having ONE source of income, for most people, their salary, is extremely RISKY.

If your job can be replaced by a machine or someone else who is willing to take a lower salary, be very worried.

Even a high-flying career is threatened when the global economy declines. Something not within our control. The entire division may be shut down to cut cost. Bond traders specializing in dried up markets such as Greece and Italy find themselves out of job very fast.

Anyone with single income is at risk. So, we must create multiple source of income. It’s not a nice-to-have, but a MUST.

2^nd Decision

Decide to Make a Change. Reeducate yourself.

The only thing certain in life is CHANGE. Change BEFORE you need to. Embrace change with continuous learning.

3^rd Decision

Leverage

R.I.C.E -four (4) building blocks to income generation.

Leverage is a very powerful tool to boost our returns. RICE are the factors that we can leverage on

R- Resources. Time and/or Money.

I – Ideas

C – Contacts

E – Expertise

This answers to excuses that we come up with for not having a second income. No time! No money! Don’t know what to do! No contacts! Don’t know how to do!

We don’t have to do everything ourselves. LEVERAGE!

4^th Decision

Rediscover True Passion

“Find the job you love, and you will never work a day in your life”

‘Nuff said.

We need to have two types of income; PASSIVE & PASSION income. Passive income generates money for us so that we may pursue our passion income. Passion income is something we love doing so much that we’ll do it even if it pays us nothing. But more often than not, our passion income produces great results because of our drive and enthusiasm.

5.       What do we need?

1. Community

2. System

3. Mentor/coach

4. Continuous Learning

5. Mastermind Group

6. RICE

7. Regional Support

Take-home points

Most people want side-income. Or multiple source of income. But most of us do not have them. Why? Because we never took action to pursue them. Why? 2 top excuses, NO TIME and NO MONEY. They are really excuses, not valid reasons. 

Because, 

#1 Everyone has the same number of hours in a day. 

#2 The richest people in the world start with little money. It's often the lack of money that drives them, not the other way round.

There are many ways to build multiple source of income. We don't have to be rich, have a lot of time or have high education.

If you had read Robert Kiyosaki's books, you are probably convinced that working hard as an employee is not the way to go and you need to build your income from the Business and Investment Quadrants. I read Kiyosaki's books and I understand, but I DON'T KNOW how to execute the concepts. KC See's Money Mastery course is a practical hands-on program whereby we are coached on how to execute and build these multiple sources of income. I find this bit particularly useful because it's not just about changing your mindset, beliefs, goal setting, etc etc which all translate into INTENTION. Intention gets us nowhere unless action is taken. The coaching will whip us up and ensure that we convert our intention into action. Coaching is up to 2-year by the way. Sufficient to guide us to stand on our own.

If you are interested in attending this seminar, register by Email to receive your free invitation. Send your name, mobile number and no. of seat to dctbff@gmail.com

Next seminar is on 5^th January 2012 (Thursday), 7:45PM at Hilton Hotel, Petaling Jaya.

I’ll update on seminar schedule and other seminars that they have on this blog.

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E as at 09-Dec-2011

At Closing on 09-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1460.13
P/E Ratio     : 15.949

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 08-Dec-2011

At Closing on 08-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1472.92
P/E Ratio  :    16.0874

Quick Chat 9-Dec-2011

I have been deliberating over the next stock to cover. So far I've written on Carlsberg and Guinness Anchor Bhd. Both breweries. I really want to get the scoop on Dutch Lady, a stock that I've been eyeing on for almost a year now, but covering yet another consumer defensive stock is kinda boring. So I've decided to do Petronas Dagangan instead. I hope to get the first part up next week.

Current Market Perspective
EU Summit is still on-going but bad news have been leaking out like a bad tap. ECB has reiterated that it will not buy European gov bonds indefinitely. Germany says no to turning ESFS into a banking facility.
It doesn't look like there will be a Santa rally this year end. But then, the market will find a reason if it wants it to happen, even if it is just thin hope.

My Long Views
Europe will dip into recession in 2012 and US will follow suit. We will not be spared here.

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 07-Dec-2011

At Closing on 07-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1482.99
P/E Ratio  :    16.1969

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 06-Dec-2011

At Closing on 06-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1480.92
P/E Ratio  :    16.1732

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd – Technical Analysis

Trend

Both Long & Short Term Trend is in an Uptrend

Simple Moving Average & MACD & Parabolic SAR

Price is above its 20-Day, 50-Day and 200-Day average, bullish.  20-Day SMA has crossed 50-Day SMA.

MACD is also giving bullish signals; blue line crossing the signal(red) line, both lines are above the 0-mark. MACD bar is green and MACD line hooking up.

Price is above Parabolic Stop & Reversal, bullish.

Support & Resistance

At 7.61, Carlsberg is trading close to its immediate resistance line at 7.64. Breaking above this, it may go up to 7.93, a strong resistance near 52-week high.

Immediate support is at 7.18.

Volume for the past few trading sessions is looking very healthy too.

Bursa Malaysia KLCI PE Chart

FTSE Bursa Malaysia (KLSE) KLCI 10-year P/E Multiple as at 25-Nov-2011

Source: Public Mutual

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 05-Dec-2011

At Closing on 05-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1489.95
P/E Ratio  :    16.2721

Carlsberg - Fundamental Analysis

In Carlsberg, The Story ,Carlsberg Brewery Berhad appears to have a more exciting outlook than Guinness Anchor Berhad. Let's see if the figures support the story.

EPS & Revenue Growth

From the divergence of the EPS and Revenue chart lines, we can see that the profit margin of Carlsberg is being squeezed prior to 2009.
Both revenue and profit increased tremendously after the acquisition of Carlsberg Singapore in 2009.

Financial year end of Carlsberg Bhd is 31 Dec.
This is how it has performed this year, 2011.
                   Q1             Q2         Q3   
Revenue    407215    345512    4101661   
EPS           16.01       10.15       15.98   

EPS for 3 cumulative quarters sums up  to 42.14, almost reaching the EPS of Year 2010. Achieving 20% growth in 2011 is at hand.


Gross profit margin in 2010 is 34%, compared to GAB 31%.
ROE at 23% is a big improvement over the previous 8 years of under 20% return on equity.
Carlsberg doesn't have to spend big on Capex, 23mill in 2010. Depreciation is a single digit %.

Free Cash Flow yield (FCF) at 8% is outstanding.
Retained earnings is also building up
2006  2007  2008  2009  2010
323.3 319.1 316.0 363.5 438.2


Gearing
Carlsberg has no long term debt. It has some short term debts tho.
DE ratio 0.6.

At time of writing, 1-Dec-2011,
PE : 17.13
PEG: 1.47
Compared to GAB (I'm using GAB instead of the industry because there are only 2 players!), having PE 18 and PEG >2, Carlsberg share price bodes better with me.

DCF computes a fair value of 8.18 for Carlsberg.

Without thorough analysis of these 2 breweries, I'd have gone for GAB due to personal preference for its beer. Now, I lean towards Carlsberg if I have to choose just one to buy.

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 02-Dec-2011

At Closing on 02-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1489.02
P/E Ratio  :    16.2617

Carlsberg, The Story

There are only 3 listed companies under the sub-sector of Breweries in KLSE/Bursa Malaysia. Guinness Anchor, Carlsberg and the third is a distributor of wine. Napex, which brews Jazz and Starker(served at the very popular Overtime chain of pubs) is not listed.
Since I have covered Guinness Anchor Berhad (GAB) here, here and here, I might as well do it for its strongest competitor. Yea, That Calls for a Carlsberg.

Carlsberg Breweries Berhad is a direct competitor of Guinness Anchor Berhad, for it does the same thing. Brews, markets and distributes beer,stout and shandy. Its product line up is more extensive compared to GAB, which has 10 brands. Carlsberg has more than double.

Beer Brewed Locally
Carlsberg
Skol
Tuborg (Premium Beer)

Stout Brewed Locally
Danish Royal Stout
Connor's (Premium Stout)

Super Premium Beer
Kronenbourg 1664

Imported Beer
Corona
Tetleys

Non-alchoholic Produced Locally
Nutrimalt
Jolly Shandy

By subsidiary
Luen Heng F&B Sdn Bhd
Becks
Budweiser
Crown Lager
Foster's
Franziskaner
Hoegaarden
Lowen Brau
Pure Blonde
Victoria Bitter
Warsteiner
Stella Artois
Leffe
Erdinger
Asahi

By Joint Controlled Entity
Cottingham & Co Ltd (Taiwan)
Beers, spirits, and alcoholic beverage
Beers include lagers, ales, dark beers, wheat beers and stouts.
Brands are Carlsberg,Corona Extra, Erdinger, Guinness, Kronenbourg 1664 and Tetley's
Also distributes Glenfarclas single malt Scotch whisky

By Associate Entity
Lion Brewery (Ceylon) in Sri Lanka
Lion Lager, Carlsberg, Strong Beer, Special Brew and Lion Stout.

Carlsberg Malaysia has presense in countries outside Malaysia unlike GAB which only operates in Malaysia.
Wholly owned subsidiaries of Carlsberg Malaysia are Carlsberg Marketing Sdn Bhd & Carlsberg Singapore Pte Ltd.
Carlsberg Msia has a 70% stake in Luen Heng F&B Sdn Bhd.
Carlsberg Malaysia makes its presense in Taiwan via jointly controlled Entities, Carlsberg Distributors Taiwan Limited ('CDTL') 50% and Carlsberg Cottingham 75%. In Sri Lanka, Carlsberg Malaysia has an investment of 24.6% in Lion Brewery (Ceylon) PLC.

How do these entities contribute to Carlsberg Malaysia Bhd's bottom line?
Operations in Malaysia contributes to 71% of profit. Singapore 29%. And others made a loss of 2 million in 2010.
In term of revenue, Malaysia contributes 76%, Singapore 23% and others 1%.
My discussion hereafter will focus on Carlsberg Malaysia and Singapore.

Mainstream beer accounts for 80% of its revenue. Premium beer, 10% of revenue, will be the segment targetted for growth. 3 years ago, Carlsberg has less than 5% market share in the premium beer segment. Now, Hoegaarden and Kronenbourg have a market share of 20% in premium beer market. MD Soren Ravn expects its premium beers to account for 40% of revenue within the next 3-5 years once Carlsberg starts brewing them in-house. The plan is to brew 2 premium brands in 2012. My guess is Hoegaarden and Kronenbourg. Makes better sense right?


How does brewing premium beer in-house translate into higher earnings?
First, Carlsberg saves on logistics costs. Second, it enjoys an exemption of RM5 per litre on import duty.
By the way, GAB brews Kilkenny locally.

In Oct 2009, Carlsberg Berhad acquired Carlsberg Singapore for 370 million. Carlsberg Singapore has 20% share of the beer and stout market in Singapore. It is at second position after market leader Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) that commands 63% market share. Tiger rocks Singapore. Annual beer consumption per person is 20 litres which is surprisingly the same as Malaysia. I had the impression that Singaporeans party harder and thus guzzle more beer.
The million dollar question... Can Carlsberg Singapore wrestle away some market share from APB? It has doubled its market share from 10% in the 1990s to 20% currently. Garnering more market share is an uphill battle due to strong branding of Tiger in Singapore. Let's just assume Carlsberg Singapore maintains its market share of 20%, Carlsberg Bhd still enjoys some upside of synergy in marketing and better utilization of capacity at its Shah Alam brewery. I'll be keeping an eye on Carlsberg Singapore growth.

Dividend and share price
Carlsberg is a dividend stock. Dividend payout took a beating in 2008 and 2009 due to the acquisition of Carlsberg Singapore, draining its coffers dry. Last year, 2010, gross dividend yield was 4%. And this year, total of 0.555 of dividend has been distributed. Gross yield of 7% at current market price of 7.25. Welcome back to the dividend camp Carlsberg.
CAGR of Carlsberg from 2007-2011 is 14.35%. A little lower than GAB at 19%. But still a fantastic return none the less.The trend of Carlsberg's stock price is somewhat similiar to GAB. Resilient and rising steadily.

Major event in 2012 is the UEFA European Cup, of which the group is the official sponsor. Drink up people.


Like GAB, Carlsberg also faces the problem of increasing costs of raw material, mainly malt which accounts for 30% of total raw material costs. Carlsberg counters by hedging up to 85% of its 2012 malt requirements.

Brewers escaped an excise hike in Budget 2011. But there is still a risk of off-budget duty hike.

However, Carlsberg has been able to pass costs to consumer. A raise of 3-5% in price may happen in year 2012 and is likely not to affect sales.

In Summary
The story on Carlsberg is a tad more interesting than Guinness. Carlsberg sells a wide range of beer. It makes sure there is beer for every segment of consumer out there. Carlsberg has also more potential to increase its profit. First, its plan to brew 2 premium beer in-house. Second, at 20% market share, Carlsberg Singapore has room to grow. In the stout segment, we can forget about Royal Stout. Stout here goes unanimously with Guinness. I favor the story on Carlsberg as there is more to look forward to.

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 01-Dec-2011

At Closing on 01-Dec-2011
KLCI Index : 1485.26
P/E Ratio     : 16.2138

Why did the markets jump 4%?

Look at the meteoric rise of the stock markets worldwide this week. Just yesterday, Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq all rose more than 4%. KLCI is already up by 27 points this morning, looking set to cross the 1500 line.

S&P 500 Daily Chart as at 30-Nov-2011

Source: Stockcharts.com

DJIA Daily Chart as at 30-Nov-2011

Source: Stockcharts.com

KLCI Daily Chart as at 1-Dec-2011

Source: Tradesignum.com\chart

Looking at these fantastic charts alone, I would have thought that EU leaders have finally found a grand solution to the Euro crisis and the US is out of recession risk. Not even close! What caused the uprise then?

#1 Coordinated action by six central banks to provide cheaper access to U.S. dollar funding
http://www.cnbc.com//id/45492184
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-ecb-boj-boe-snb-bank-of-canada-announce-coordinated-intervention-2011-11

#2 China Cuts Reserve Ratio
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/asian-stocks-advance-after-central-banks-ease-dollar-funding.html

What does the Lending Cost Cut and and Reserve Ratio Cut indicate?
#1 These arrangements should indicate just how frightened governments around the world are about the European financial crisis
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204012004577069960192509068.html?mod=asia_home

#2 China Reserve-Ratio Cut May Signal Slowdown
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/china-cuts-reserve-requirement-for-banks-as-europe-crisis-threatens-growth.html

Does anyone care about the fall of PMI in China?
China Factory Sector Shrinks First Time in Nearly 3 Years
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45501162
China Manufacturing Falls for First Time Since 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/china-s-manufacturing-shrinks-for-first-time-since-2009-on-europe-impact.html

Or the Unsustainable yield that Italy has to pay for its government bond?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND

Or that the Leading Indicators still points to recession risk in the US?
http://www.oecd.org/department/0,3355,en_2649_34349_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

Investors craves so much for a Santa rally that they put on rose tinted glasses while reading the news, picking only the good side of a report and brushing aside the rest.

When the reality that none of the crises have been resolved slaps them in the face, investors will go into another bout of panic selling. It's bound to happen isn't it?

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 30-Nov-2011

At Closing on 30-Nov-2011
KLCI Index : 1472.1
P/E Ratio     : 16.0779

Guinness Anchor Bhd, GAB – Technical Analysis

The third and final piece of my 3-part analysis of Guinness Anchor Berhad, which is also likely the most flawed. I’ve just begun my study of technical analysis (TA) and my analysis using TA will morph from time to time as I discover better ways. 

Long Term trend

GAB is trending upwards in the long term.

In this 5-year graph, I can also see that the 2008 global financial crisis didn’t have a severe impact on its stock price.

Simple Moving Average (SMA) & MACD

GAB is above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Still bullish. But MACD tells a different story. MACD crosses below signal line and is hooking down. 

Support & Resistance

GAB is trading at the resistance of RM11. Immediately support is 10.60. Next level of support is the psychological price of RM10. Breaching this, it may retrace to 9.16

In Summary

At current price of near RM11, GAB is trading at resistance. Further upside is limited as GAB is deemed fully valued at PE of 17.7.

Read Part 1 and Part 2 of GAB Analysis here:

Guinness Anchor Berhad, GAB - The Story

Guinness Anchor Berhad, GAB - Fundamental Analysis

KLSE FTSE Bursa Malaysia P/E on 29-Nov-2011

At Closing on 29-Nov-2011
KLCI Index : 1444.72
P/E Ratio  :    15.7672

10-Year Historical Chart of FBM KLCI P/E Multiple

The daily KLCI updates I provide on this blog may not be too useful if one isn't aware of the historical value of the market PE.
More on historical KLCI PE info.

I'd so like to plot my own graph but I can't get my hands on KLCI PE 10 year data. Darn, I can't even get the past 1 year data! Doesn't seem to be published anywhere. Anyway, the chart provided by Public Mutual is quite accurate. Here is the latest available KLCI PE Multiple chart from Public Mutual.

Source: Public Mutual

On 18-Nov-2011, the PE ratio stated on the chart is 15.7x. A check with my own post on 18-Nov KLCI PE shows a multiple of 15.7986.

I've always been skeptical with mutual funds as they paint very rosy pictures of market conditions and investment returns. Reports and market data churnned out from mutual fund houses are likely to be sugar-coated and carefully selected to promote sales. I always check if the figures have been twisted to their benefit. Forward PE is one of them. I've heard enough of the market being extremely 'cheap' based to forward PE. Alright, back to the graph, the P/E on 2011 seem to aptly reflect the PE of the underlined date. Just forget about the P/E on 2012 earnings; now that is forward PE.

I will be making weekly posting on FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Market P/E chart.

KLSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI P/E Multiple

KLSE Bursa Malaysia closed on 28-Nov-2011 to observe Awal Muharram.

KLSE Bursa FBM KLCI P/E Ratio

At Closing on 25-November-2011
KLCI Index : 1431.55
P/E Ratio  :    15.6234

ChartNexus Technical Analysis Training Program Preview

Following the ChartNexus 3-hr Stock Screening Workshop I attended last week, I’ve returned for their 2-hr Program Preview last night. The trainer was the same one. I still didn’t catch his name, because he mumbles and blends his words. Frankly, if this is the trainer conducting the 4-day full seminar, I wouldn’t attend it even if I’m sold on Technical Analysis. How to tolerate 4 days of deciphering mumbles?  No offence to the trainer, I’m sure he’s highly skilled and qualified.

A short introduction on the history of ChartNexus, its products and he is ready to move on to the interesting bits.

3 Problems Traders Face

1.       What to Buy?

2.       When to Buy?

3.       When to Take Profit?

90% of Investors LOSE money in the stock market. Why?

1.       They are ignorant about ‘floor’ & ‘ceiling’

a.       Do not buy when price hits a resistance.

b.      Buy at support OR when it surpasses support

     2.       They buy because the stock is ‘cheap’.

                Cheap stocks can go cheaper.

3.       Missed opportunity. Don’t know how to cut loss

If I hung on to the losing stock above, I would have missed the opportunity to make a 100% gain on a winning stock in the same time frame. We should cut loss at 5%.

After showing us the charts that in retrospective, tells the obvious, he explained on how Technical Analysis can address the 3 problems traders face. What to buy, When to buy & When to Sell.

There are 3 Different Techniques for Different Market Conditions. Market has 3 directions; Up, Down & Sideways. By mastering Technical Analysis, traders can make profit in any market directions.

1.       Chart Pattern

a.       Ascending triangle

                                                               i.      Chart forming higher lows

                                                             ii.      Bullish signal, go long

b.      Descending triangle

                                                               i.      Chart forming lower highs

                                                             ii.      Bearish signal, go short

c.       Flag Formation

This kinda triangular flag it’s referring to, not the country flag sort

The flag formation is interesting because it comes with a profit target, which is the flag pole. We first draw the profit target = height of flag pole. Then we move it to the entry/buy point. Buy point is at the top of the flag pole. Exit point is therefore determined.

In the flag formation above, buy at 3.06 and sell at 3.22. 5.4% gain in just 3 days.

2.       Candlestick Pattern

a.       Doji

Bullish reversal pattern

Signals a reversal of trend. Tug of war in price

b.      Inverted Hammer

Bullish reversal pattern

Happens at low

c.       Bearish Engulfing

Signals end of uptrend

d.      Bullish engulfing

Signals end of downtrend

e.      Shooting star

      Long Upper Shadow

      Bearish

f.        Spinning Top

Short body, tails longer than body

Bearish

g.       Hammer

Bullish

Happens at low

h.         Hanging Man

 Hammer at resistance/top

 Bearish

3.       Indicators

20-Day MA, Bollinger band, MACD. The trainer didn’t explain much on indicators. In last week’s workshop, more emphasis was placed on indicators.

He then ended with Trading Plan,ESP, the key to profitable trading.

Entry

Stop loss

Profit target

*Source of all charts on this blog entry is from ChartNexus.

At the end of the seminar preview, I still wasn’t sold on the idea of trading using Technical Analysis. If reading chart patterns, candlesticks and indicators is all that is required for profitable trading, I might as well just buy a software that accurately spots all these and sets the E,S,P points for me. Why bother attending the 4-day program? ChartNexus actually sells an ESP software. But the point is, will I put my hard earned money on the table just because a software tell me to? I think not. Technical Analysis should never be used on its own but unfortunately, that is all ChartNexus program is about. Perhaps one day I may revisit ChartNexus program.